In September, Bitcoin experienced a 4% increase in value, marking the first green September in seven years. This is noteworthy, especially considering that the S&P 500 dropped by almost 5% during the same period. Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, but this time, it bucked the trend.
However, there is a potential macroeconomic risk on the horizon, with concerns about a recession in late 2023 or early 2024. This risk is not specific to cryptocurrency but could impact Bitcoin's performance.
Bitcoin tends to move differently from traditional markets, often consolidating for a few months before making significant moves. In pre-halving years, it often spends half the year rising and half the year falling.
The current situation suggests that Bitcoin has shown relative strength compared to the S&P 500, which is an interesting development. However, Bitcoin's discrete movements make it challenging to predict its future performance accurately. The remainder of the year will be crucial to observe how these trends evolve, especially considering the potential macroeconomic risks.
1. The video discusses Bitcoin's performance in September, noting that it increased by about 4%, marking the first time this has happened in seven years .
2. The speaker mentions that while Bitcoin tends to go up in September, it is not always the case. They provide examples of green and red months in previous years .
3. The speaker points out that while Bitcoin tends to go up in September, the S&P often tends to get a substantial correction in the pre-election year .
4. The speaker discusses the potential recession risk and the importance of understanding macro factors, noting that Bitcoin's movements are often related to traditional market movements .
5. The speaker mentions that Bitcoin tends to move more discreetly than the S&P 500, often doing nothing for a couple of months before suddenly moving to wherever it needs to go .
6. The speaker discusses the biggest risk to Bitcoin at this point, which is not crypto-specific but more related to traditional markets and macro risks .
7. The speaker talks about the importance of looking at the S&P divided by Bitcoin as an important level to watch, noting that this metric is currently sitting right at its 20-week moving average .
8. The speaker provides examples of the S&P outperforming Bitcoin and vice versa, emphasizing that Bitcoin's outperformance of the S&P is not always guaranteed .
9. The speaker discusses the importance of considering monthly returns when looking at Bitcoin's performance, noting that the monthly return count bottomed out at 16 at the end of 2019 and 2022 .
10. The speaker mentions that going into October, if we look at monthly returns on average, October tends to be a green month .
11. The speaker notes that of all Octobers, four of them have been red, while of all Septembers, four of them have been green .
12. The speaker discusses the last time we had a red October, which was back in 2018, and the time before that was in 2014 .
13. The speaker notes that in 2022, which is normally when we get a red October compared to the last two bare Market years, had a green October .