The following is a possible concise summary of the text:
The text is a transcript of a video by a Chinese commentator who discusses the implications of China's low fertility rate and population decline. He argues that China will face serious economic and social challenges in the next 20 to 40 years, such as:
- A sharp reduction in the labour force, which will affect China's manufacturing, service and delivery industries, and reduce its competitiveness in the global market.
- A fall in asset prices, especially real estate, which will erode the wealth of urban residents and increase the risk of financial instability.
- A collapse of the social security system, which relies on a pay-as-you-go model that depends on a stable population structure and sufficient tax revenue.
- A rise in social conflicts, as people's welfare and living standards will be threatened by economic downturns and government spending cuts.
He compares China's situation with Japan's, which has experienced a long-term low fertility rate and population decline, but has a more complete social security system and a higher level of development. He also gives examples of cities in Japan and China that have suffered from population loss and asset depreciation. He warns that China's demographic dividend has passed and that investing in real estate is risky. He urges people to think twice about the future of China.
Here are the key facts extracted from the text:
1. The total fertility rate of Wuhu city has dropped to 1.1.
2. A total fertility rate of 1.1 means that the entire population is about to halve for every generation.
3. China's nationwide total fertility rate is about 1.3, according to the most recent census.
4. The United Nations' threshold for a low fertility trap is 1.5.
5. China's total fertility rate has been declining every year, with a significant drop from 1.7 million newborns in 2017 to 10 million by last year.
6. Japan's total fertility rate is 1.3, while South Korea's is around 0.8.
7. China's workforce has been shrinking since 2014.
8. The "Lewis Turning Point" refers to the point at which the surplus labor in the agricultural sector is absorbed into the industrial sector.
9. China's demographic structure and massive labor force were key factors in its rapid economic growth during the reform and opening-up period.
10. The population boom in China during the 1960s provided a large workforce that entered the labor market during the opening-up period.
11. Japan has experienced a steady decline in its fertility rate, leading to a reduction of 600,000 people every year.
12. The dependency ratio in China will increase significantly in the next 20-30 years, putting pressure on the social security system.
13. China's social security system is based on a "pay-as-you-go" model, where current contributions are used to pay current pensions.
14. The Chinese government has allocated part of the shares of state-owned enterprises to social security systems to supplement the funds.
15. The collapse of social security accounts is highly likely in the next two decades due to the significant drop in population.
16. Japan's social security system is relatively complete, but China's system is far from that of developed countries.
17. China's population is expected to reduce by 5-10 million people per year in the next 20 years, equivalent to reducing the population of medium and large cities.
18. The asset price of houses in China will fall sharply due to the decline in population and the resulting decrease in demand.
19. The cost of holding real estate, including property taxes, will become a burden for many people, leading to a decrease in asset prices.
20. The Japanese government has introduced policies to encourage people to move to rural areas, including offering free houses and land.
21. China's social security experts have not done calculations for the next 30-40 years, and the current system is not equipped to handle the significant drop in population.
22. The avalanche of population decline will lead to a collapse of social security accounts, and the government may not be able to fill the gap.
23. Social stability will be greatly challenged in China due to the significant drop in population, economic depression, and the fall in asset prices.
24. The government's passive and necessary spending will be hard to cut, and people's welfare expenses will be hard to reduce, leading to significant social risks.
25. Social conflicts in China will become unprecedentedly serious again if the economy re-enters a recession or a downhill.