The conversation revolves around the concept of human extinction and the possibility of human-made threats. The speaker discusses the availability of Ebola virus genome on the internet, and how with the advancement of 3D bio printing technology, it may be possible to produce viruses at home. They also discuss the possibility of human extinction, citing the Global Catastrophic Risks Survey issued by Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute, which places the risk of extinction before the year 2100 at 19%.
The speaker then introduces the "doomsday argument," which suggests that given the large number of humans who have lived, it's more probable that human extinction will occur sooner rather than later. They argue that from 200 billion people, there's a 50% chance that a randomly chosen person would be born in the first 100 billion, but if there were 10 trillion humans, there's only a 1% chance that any given human would be born within the first 100 billion.
The speaker also mentions the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, founded in 1991, which believes humans are a negative influence on Earth and thus have a moral obligation to stop reproducing. They use the example of a computer program that plays video games, which struggles to consider future repercussions and ends up pausing the game indefinitely when faced with imminent demise, representing the argument that the only winning move is not to play.
Finally, the speaker encourages the audience to keep playing and learning, suggesting that while the future might look bleak, it's important not to panic and to keep striving for knowledge and improvement.
Here are the key facts extracted from the text:
1. The Ebola virus genome can be downloaded from the internet.
2. 3D bio printing technology is expected to progress in the near future.
3. The Global Catastrophic Risks Survey by Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 19% chance of human extinction before the year 2100.
4. The Doomsday Argument suggests that human extinction is more probable based on the fact that we are a random sample from the set of all humans who will ever live.
5. The probability of being born within the first 100 billion humans is 50% if there will be 200 billion people, but only 1% if there will be 10 trillion humans.
6. The Doomsday Argument does not consider the likelihoods of actual threats or human advantages over those threats in the future.
7. The Fermi Paradox suggests that intelligent life forms in the universe may be capable of living for billions of years, but are not visible to us.
8. The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement was founded in 1991 and believes that humans are a negative influence on Earth and should stop reproducing.
9. A computer program created by Tom 7 was able to play video games and come up with novel techniques and strategies without human input.
10. The computer program was not programmed to consider future repercussions and was able to pause a game forever to avoid losing.