The transcript is a discussion between several individuals, primarily focusing on the state of the stock market, particularly the NASDAQ index, and its implications for the broader economy.
The conversation begins with a discussion about the performance of the NASDAQ index, with some participants noting that it has rolled over slightly and that Apple and Nvidia are experiencing problems. The significance of these issues is debated, with some participants suggesting that the bulk of the damage is being done by Apple due to concerns about China.
The discussion then shifts to the semiconductor industry, with participants noting that Broadcom and other semiconductors are down. However, there are pockets of strength in the software space, such as Adobe, that are offsetting some of the issues.
The conversation then turns to the question of whether the market is in a "buy the dip" environment. Participants debate this, with some suggesting that the market is still in that environment, which has kept the market resilient.
The discussion then shifts to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its potential actions. Participants discuss the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates, noting that if they do, they will be leaning on the economy.
The conversation then turns to the topic of inflation, with participants discussing whether it has fallen due to the actions of the Fed or despite them. The answer to this question is considered important for investors, as it could impact whether the Fed caused inflation.
Finally, the conversation ends with a
1. The NASDAQ has rolled over a bit.
2. Apple and NVIDIA are still having problems.
3. The debate is on whether the issues with Apple and NVIDIA are significant.
4. The bulk of the damage is being done by Apple, which is largely worried about China.
5. NVIDIA, the entire semi space is across the street.
6. Broadcom is down.
7. Semis are down.
8. Cybersecurity names are still doing super well.
9. Old tech, IBM, Cisco, Oracle is at a high.
10. There is a debate on whether the market is still in a buy the dip environment.
11. There was some talk that the market had changed to sell the rip.
12. It's still a buy the dip mentality.
13. The Q-3 GDP is probably stronger than Q-2 which is stronger than Q-1.
14. The headline inflation rate is going to be higher for the second month in a row and through the remainder of the year.
15. Some of the things that have brought down inflation like the airline fares and insurance.
16. There is some stability in the CPI all year long.
17. The target for the CPI was 2 1/2 to 3 1/2.
18. Goods inflation is not even close to what it was.
19. Housing services inflation has peaked and is coming down.
20. Nonhousing services have remained a bit sticky, probably more sticky than the Fed would like.
21. The Fed might need to lean on things more.
22. Two of the three key inflation gauges have really gone in the right direction.
23. There is a great debate now, whether inflation has fallen from call it 9:00 to 4:00 because of the Fed or despite the Fed.
24. The answer to that question and the discussion around it is really important for investors.
25. If the Fed caused inflation, the next number it will be 3.7.