The speaker discusses their investigation into the mechanics of carnival games, revealing that many of them are designed to exploit players' overestimation of their chances of winning. The speaker collected data on all 24 carnival games over a full day, observing how many times each game was played and how many times people won each game.
The games were divided into three categories: Random Chance Games, Skill-Based Games, and Near Impossible Games. The speaker calculated the win rate for Random Chance Games by dividing the number of winning outcomes by the total outcomes. They found that these games were manipulated to be less likely to land where the player aimed, making it harder to win.
Skill-Based Games, like the basketball toss, were manipulated to overestimate the player's chances of winning. For example, the basketball toss game was set up so that players would naturally miss short shots due to the slope of the tarp.
Near Impossible Games, such as the red star game and the spring bottle game, were designed to be so difficult to win that the carnival could offer large prizes without risking significant losses.
The speaker also revealed that they enlisted the help of professional baseball player Matt Winaker to maximize their chances of winning skill-based games. They concluded by advising players to enjoy the games if they find them fun, but to be aware that the odds are heavily stacked against them.
1. The speaker spent a couple of days observing and collecting data on all the carnival games. [Source: page_content]
2. The speaker collected data on all 24 carnival games for a full day. [Source: page_content]
3. They recorded how many times each game was played, and how many times people actually won each game and the prize they won. [Source: page_content]
4. The relatively small park collects $20,000 a day off their carnival games alone. [Source: page_content]
5. The games were divided into three groups: Random Chance Games, skill-based games, and games that are pretty much impossible. [Source: page_content]
6. In the Random Chance games, the chance of winning is calculated by dividing the winning outcomes by the total outcomes. [Source: page_content]
7. The speaker found that the prizes cost them significantly less than what they charged for them. [Source: page_content]
8. In the skill-based games, subtle changes were made to overestimate players' chances of winning. [Source: page_content]
9. For the near impossible games, the speaker found that it was almost impossible for players to win. [Source: page_content]
10. The speaker concluded that if you lose at these games, it's not a big deal, unlike this guy who lost his entire life savings. [Source: page_content]
11. The speaker suggests that if someone's motivation is to gain the love and admiration of someone's special via a stuffed animal, they don't need carnival games to do that. [Source: page_content]