In the discussion, the speaker talks about the influence of Iran and Russia, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war. They highlight the increased cooperation between these two countries, despite historical rivalry. Iran's role in supplying munitions and drones to Russia in the conflict is emphasized. This cooperation is seen as a significant shift in Iran's foreign policy, moving away from Europe and towards Russia and China.
The speaker also mentions the potential security threats posed by this collaboration, particularly the use of drones in the conflict and the challenge of containing Iran's nuclear program without support from Russia and China.
The conversation then delves into the Iran nuclear deal negotiated in 2015 and the role of influential academics in shaping the narrative around it. The discussion touches on the covert nature of this network and its impact on public opinion and policy.
The conversation ends by addressing the broader issue of countries trying to influence decision-makers and the challenges of monitoring such activities, especially in the digital age. The possibility of Iran using its influence to evade sanctions is also mentioned.
Here are the key facts extracted from the text:
1. The Caspian Sea is a major route for Iranian armed shipments to Russia.
2. The U.S. Navy cannot access the Caspian Sea as it is landlocked.
3. Countries bordering the Caspian Sea are not enforcing Western sanctions against Iranian shipments.
4. Iran and Russia have increased cooperation since the start of the Ukraine war.
5. Iran has supplied Russia with munitions, including kamikaze drones.
6. The U.S. government has intelligence that Iran is building a drone facility in Russia.
7. Iran is also building a drone factory in Belarus.
8. Iran's oil sales have been completely blocked due to economic sanctions.
9. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed upon in 2015, setting rules for monitoring Iran's nuclear program in return for the lifting of nuclear sanctions.
10. The JCPOA had "sunset clauses" that limited the agreement's duration.
11. The agreement was not turned into a treaty, and its lack of political support outside of the Obama administration made it unlikely to survive.
12. The Trump administration pulled out of the JCPOA.
13. Iran's nuclear stockpile is 20 times over the agreed limit, according to the UN.
14. The U.S. has released or lifted legal action against five Iranian nationals involved in sanctions evasion.
15. The prisoner swap deal between the U.S. and Iran included the release of five American prisoners.
16. The U.S. released $6 billion as part of the prisoner swap deal.
17. Iran may de-escalate on the nuclear front as part of the prisoner swap deal.
18. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been able to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities.
19. Saudi Arabia wants to develop a uranium enrichment facility.
20. Iran's current government is an anti-American revolutionary government at its core.
21. The Ukraine war has forced Iran's hand, and they have chosen to align with Russia and China.
22. Iran wants to have a latent nuclear weapons capability, but may not actually develop a nuclear weapon.
23. Having a latent nuclear weapons capability would give Iran strategic space to conduct operations in the region.