The speaker recounts a personal story where they faced a challenging situation due to stress-induced decision-making. They broke into their own house, forgot their passport for a flight, and later learned about the importance of thinking ahead and making informed decisions, particularly in medical choices. They emphasize the need to consider statistics like the number needed to treat and potential side effects when making medical decisions, highlighting the importance of rational thinking during stressful situations. Ultimately, the speaker advocates for proactive measures to prevent or minimize the impact of potential failures in various aspects of life.
1. The speaker describes a situation where they locked themselves out of their house and had to break a window to get back in. This happened in Montreal, Canada, during the winter and was around midnight. The temperature was -40 degrees Celsius. [Source: Document 1]
2. The speaker was visiting a friend named Jeff in another part of the city. They realized they didn't have their keys in their pockets and saw them on the dining room table. [Source: Document 1]
3. The speaker tried all the other doors and windows, which were locked. They considered calling a locksmith, but it was too late and they were freezing. They had an early flight to Europe the next morning. [Source: Document 1]
4. In desperation and freezing cold, the speaker found a large rock and broke through the basement window. They cleared out the shards of glass and crawled through. [Source: Document 1]
5. The speaker then noticed they didn't have their passport, which they needed for their flight to Europe. They raced home, got their passport, and made it to the airport just in time, but they had to sit in the back of the plane due to a seating mix-up. [Source: Document 1]
6. The speaker, a neuroscientist, explains that the brain releases cortisol under stress, which can cloud thinking. This happened to them on the flight due to the stress of the situation. [Source: Document 1]
7. The speaker met with their colleague Danny Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner, who shared with them a concept called "prospective hindsight" or "pre-mortem". This involves anticipating potential problems and planning for them. [Source: Document 2]
8. The speaker explains that the hippocampus, a structure in the brain, is crucial for finding things. This is why we often lose items like car keys, reading glasses, and passports. [Source: Document 2]
9. The speaker suggests designating a spot for easily lost items to help prevent them from being misplaced. [Source: Document 2]
10. The speaker also suggests taking a picture of important documents like credit cards, driver's license, and passport and mailing them to oneself for safekeeping. [Source: Document 2]
11. The speaker discusses the concept of "number needed to treat" (NNT) for medical treatments. They explain that this refers to the number of people who need to take a drug or undergo a procedure before one person is helped. [Source: Document 3]
12. The speaker gives an example of the NNT for the most widely prescribed statin drug, which is 300. This means that 300 people need to take the drug before one person's cholesterol is helped. [Source: Document 3]
13. The speaker also discusses the side effects of the statin drug, which occur in 5% of patients. They mention debilitating muscle and joint pain, gastrointestinal distress, and other issues. [Source: Document 3]
14. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of informed consent and pre-thinking about potential medical decisions. They suggest that we should consider quality of life, potential side effects, and other factors when making such decisions. [Source: Document 3]