The threat of hurricanes is increasing due to record-high temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, making it "like a ticking time bomb" for hurricane formation. However, the current calm in the tropics is attributed to a combination of Saharan dust and vertical wind shear. The forecast for the rest of hurricane season is more concerning, with a weaker El Niño expected to allow more storms to form. Experts, including those from Colorado State University, have updated their forecasts to reflect this, predicting up to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The mainland US is at a higher risk of a direct hit from a major hurricane, with a 50% chance predicted. It's essential for people living in coastal areas to prepare and not be complacent due to the slow start to the hurricane season.
Here are the key facts extracted from the text:
1. The Atlantic Ocean is currently hotter than it has ever been before.
2. Hot oceans are a key factor in the formation of hurricanes.
3. The Atlantic Ocean has been tracked since 1854, and this year's sea surface temperatures are the highest on record.
4. A 98.5-degree water temperature was recorded near Florida.
5. The Atlantic Ocean is capable of supporting a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
6. The current hurricane season is expected to be above average.
7. A combination of Saharan dust and vertical wind shear is currently preventing big storms from forming in the tropics.
8. Wind shear is a larger deterrent to hurricane formation than Saharan dust.
9. El Nino is expected to occur this year, but it is not expected to be excessively strong.
10. El Nino typically leads to storm activity over the Pacific, which can create hostile trade winds and wind shear in the Atlantic.
11. The hurricane experts at Colorado State University have updated their official 2023 hurricane forecast to reflect new information.
12. The updated forecast predicts up to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
13. The mainland U.S. is at a greater risk than usual for experiencing a direct hit from a major hurricane.
14. The probability of a direct hit by a category 3 or higher hurricane in the U.S. is around 50%.
15. The Atlantic Ocean has a high amount of energy, which could lead to strong hurricanes if they form.
16. August and September are expected to be very active months for hurricane formation.