The content creator, Ryan, discusses predicting the first snowfall of the year in different areas of the United States. He notes that tools like the Farmer's Almanac are only for entertainment and not scientifically accurate. Instead, Ryan uses historical data to create a map showing the average date of the first snowfall in various regions.
Ryan then combines this historical data with current weather patterns, including a La Niña pattern, to make predictions about when and where snow will fall. He also uses experimental forecast models to support his predictions.
Based on his analysis, Ryan predicts that some areas, such as the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, will see snow earlier than average, while others, like Chicago and St. Louis, will see snow later than average. He also makes a bold prediction that the first measurable snowfall in Chicago will occur on December 5th, 2022.
Throughout the video, Ryan emphasizes that predicting snowfall is not an exact science and that his predictions are subject to change. He encourages viewers to follow along with his winter outlooks and participate in a contest where they can win $1,000 by measuring and reporting snowfall using a special measuring stick called a "Yalla Meter."
Here are the key facts extracted from the text:
1. The Farmer's Almanac is not a reliable source for predicting the weather.
2. The Farmer's Almanac is only accurate about 50% of the time.
3. Historical data is used to create a map that shows when a specific area typically sees its first snowfall each year.
4. The map is used to predict when an area will see its first snowfall, along with current weather data and trends.
5. The US is divided into areas based on when they typically see their first snowfall, with some areas seeing snow as early as October and others not seeing snow until January or February.
6. Areas in the south and southwest see snow on a semi-regular basis, but it's sporadic.
7. The northeast and upper plains typically see snow between November 1st and November 16th.
8. The Rocky Mountains see snow between October 2nd and November 1st.
9. Wyoming and portions of Montana see snow in September.
10. A La Niña pattern means cold air builds up in Canada and releases itself to the south via the polar jet stream.
11. The La Niña pattern typically leads to excess moisture in the Pacific Northwest.
12. Experimental forecast models, such as the CFS, are used to add weight to predictions.
13. September is expected to be colder than average in the north and warmer than average in the west.
14. October is expected to be warmer than average for many people.
15. November is expected to see an area of cooler than average air set up in the northeast and Pacific Northwest.
16. The first measurable snowfall in Chicago, Illinois is predicted to happen on December 5th, 2022.
17. A contest is being held where people can win $1,000 by measuring and sending in pictures of snow totals.