This is the first session in a series about valuation, focusing on three key themes:
1. Valuation is simple but often made complex by our own choices.
2. Valuation involves both numbers and narrative; the story matters.
3. Valuation problems arise from bias, uncertainty, and complexity.
The presenter also discusses their motivation for teaching valuation, emphasizing the importance of valuation as a tool to combat impulsive decision-making in investing.
They further explain the three big problems in valuation:
1. Bias, stemming from preconceptions and missions.
2. Uncertainty, as valuations involve making estimates about the future.
3. Complexity, where excessive model complexity can hinder clarity.
Three main valuation approaches are introduced:
1. Intrinsic Valuation: Valuing based on a company's fundamentals, like cash flows, growth, and risk.
2. Relative Valuation: Valuing by comparing to similar assets in the market.
3. Option Pricing Models: Applying options theory to value assets with contingent cash flows.
Each approach makes assumptions about market mistakes and correction, with intrinsic valuation requiring a longer time horizon.
1. **Valuation Themes:**
- Valuation is simple; complexity arises from our choices.
- Every valuation has a narrative behind it, making storytelling essential.
- Valuations can go wrong due to bias, uncertainty, and complexity.
2. **Purpose of Valuation:**
- Valuation serves as a rational anchor amidst changing market sentiments.
- It provides a foundation for decision-making, preventing impulsive actions.
3. **Approaches to Valuation:**
- **Intrinsic Valuation:**
- Values assets based on expected cash flows, discount rates, and asset life.
- Assumes markets make mistakes, correcting them over time.
- Requires a long time horizon for accurate assessments.
- **Relative Valuation:**
- Values assets based on how similar assets are priced in the market.
- Utilizes scale measures of price to compare assets of different sizes.
- **Option Pricing Models:**
- Applies option pricing models for assets with contingent cash flows.
- Values assets that have value only if specific conditions, like regulatory approvals, are met.
4. **Common Valuation Misconceptions:**
- **Preconceived Bias:**
- People often enter valuations with preconceptions, affecting the outcome.
- Biases are influenced by who commissions the valuation and their vested interests.
- **Illusion of Objectivity:**
- Despite using numbers, valuations are based on estimates and inherently uncertain.
- The discomfort in valuing certain assets indicates potential opportunities for investors.
- **Complexity and Overcomplication:**
- Building excessively complex models can lead to input fatigue and unreliable results.
- Simple, parsimonious models often provide more accurate and manageable valuations.
These key facts capture the core points from the provided text, focusing on valuation principles, purposes, approaches, and common misconceptions.